Climate Change and Crop Yield Distribution: Some New Evidence From Panel Data Models

This study examines the impact of climate on the yields of seven major crops in Taiwan based on pooled panel data for 15 prefectures over the 1977-1996 period. Unit-root tests and maximum likelihood methods involving a panel data model are explored to obtain reliable estimates. The results suggest that climate has different impacts on different crops and a gradual increase in crop yield variation is expected as global warming prevails. Policy measures to counteract yield variability should therefore be carefully evaluated to protect farmers from exposure to these long-lasting and increasingly climate-related risks.Yield response, Climate change, Panel data, Unit-root test

Is Contract Farming More Profitable and Efficient Than Non-Contract Farming-A Survey Study of Rice Farms In Taiwan

Trade liberalization and globalization has modernized the food retail sector in Taiwan, affecting consumers, producers and trade patterns. These changes have placed significant pressures on farmers and processors including more stringent quality control and product varieties. The government has launched a rice production-marketing contract program in 2005 to assist rice farmers and the agro-business sector to work together as partners. The minimum scale for each contract is 50 hectares of adjacent rice paddies with 50 participants including rice farmers, seedling providers, millers and marketing agents. In order to evaluate the outcome of this program, a survey is conducted in the summer of 2005 after the first (spring) crop is harvested. Information of price and value of output and major variable and fixed inputs are collected along with characteristics of the farmers and farms. The survey results show that the average revenue of a contract farm is about 11 percent higher than an average non-contract farm. The per hectare cost of production in a contract farm is about 13 percent lower and as a result the average profit margin under contract is more than 50 percent above those without contract. A swtiching regression profit frontier model is adopted to further investigate their efficiency performance. The result indicates that an average contract farms is 20 percent more efficient than an average non-contract farm in a comparable operating environment. The result also suggests that although contract farming has potential to improve the profit of smallholders, it is not a sufficient condition for such improvement.Land Economics/Use,

Modeling Flood Perils and Flood Insurance Program in Taiwan

Taiwan had approximately 3,000 buildings damaged by floods with an economic loss of NT$12.8 billion annually, a figure 4.5 times more than economic losses due to fire damages. Many insurers become extremely cautious when underwriting their flood policies for people living in areas that are frequently struck by floods. The rising damages also trigger the demand for a mandatory national flood insurance program. This paper describes the development of an integrated flood risk assessment model for Taiwan which contains of a hazard, vulnerability and financial analysis module. We take the perspective that the mandatory program will be provided to fire policyholders as part of building and content insurance to mitigate the financial losses. The issue of a long-term balance between fund accumulations and its claim payouts will be addressed along with policy recommendations based on the modeling results.Risk Assessment, Typhoon, Flood Insurance, Financial Analysis, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty,

AN ECONOMY-WIDE ANALYSIS OF GM FOOD LABELING POLICIES IN TAIWAN

The development of agricultural biotechnology offers the opportunity to increase crop production, lowers farming costs, improves food quality and could reduce costs to consumers. For the food importing economies, the import quantities as well as prices will be affected through world market as the production technology of GM crops is adopted by the exporting countries. Many sectors will be affected by the use of these crops through vertical (or backward) and horizontal (or forward) linkages. The purpose of this paper is to develop an economy-wide quantitative assessment of the economic impacts of the introduction of GM products with and without labeling. The modeling framework used in this analysis is TAIGEM (Taiwan General Equilibrium Model), a multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Taiwan¡¦s economy which is derived from ORANI model (Dixon, Parmenter, Sutton and Vincent, 1982). TAIGEM is amended by splitting corn and soybeans into GM and non-GM varieties. It also endogenizes the decision of producers and consumers to use GM vs. non-GM corn and soybeans in their intermediate uses and consumption, respectively. We also consider the consumers¡¦ acceptance of GM food so that the mandatory labeling policy can be examined. Our simulation results indicate that the most extreme import ban on GM crops would be very costly in terms of total production values, ranging from NT$ 40 to 90 billions per year.Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,